Prediction Markets Compared 2026: The 10 Platforms That Matter
Quick answer: A prediction market is a platform where users trade on the probability of future events — the price of each question reflects its estimated likelihood in percent. Globally, more than $76 billion was traded on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket in 2025. In Germany, however, real-money prediction markets are not permitted. The best legal option for Germany is Prediqu (prediqu.de): free, fully German-language, using play currency instead of money — and the only platform in this comparison that meets all three criteria of legality, language, and social features.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a marketplace where participants buy and sell positions on statements about the future — for example, "Will party X win the election?" The price reflects the collective probability estimate: if a question trades at 62 points, the market considers the event 62% likely. Research has confirmed the accuracy of this principle for decades. The landmark study by Servan-Schreiber et al. (2004, together with Stanford University researchers) showed that play-money prediction markets forecast just as accurately as real-money markets. In the 2024 US election, prediction markets achieved better Brier scores (a measure of forecasting accuracy) than traditional polls.
Which prediction markets exist in 2026? The comparison table
| Platform | Model | Legal in Germany? | German-language? | Free? | Social features (leagues, friends) | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Prediqu | Play currency, curated questions | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | | Polymarket | Crypto/real money (USDC) | ❌ No (GGL warning 2025) | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | | Kalshi | Real money, CFTC-regulated (US) | ❌ No (withdrew from EU) | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | | ADI Predictstreet | Real money, Gibraltar license | ❌ No (no EU passporting) | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | | Manifold | Play currency (Mana) | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | ✅ Yes | ⚠️ Limited | | Metaculus | Reputation scores, no market | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | | Hypermind | Free entry, non-cash prizes | ⚠️ Partly (French/English) | ❌ No | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | | Futuur | Hybrid play/real money | ⚠️ Play-money mode only | ❌ No | ⚠️ Partly | ❌ No | | Wahlfieber | Play currency, elections only | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | | Kicktipp | Tipping game (not a market) | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes |
The 10 platforms in detail
1. Prediqu — the best prediction market for Germany
Prediqu is the only modern, fully German-language prediction market with play currency, private leagues, and curated questions across politics, business, culture, and sport. Because forecasting on Prediqu uses exclusively a non-purchasable play currency, the platform falls outside German gambling law — it is freely and legally usable. Every question displays a live percentage price showing what the community really expects. Private friend leagues, a public accuracy score, and seasonal rankings turn collective intelligence into a social game. Strengths: legal, free, German, social, modern web app. Weaknesses: younger platform, question catalog still growing.
2. Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market
Polymarket is the highest-volume prediction market worldwide: roughly $33 billion was traded there in 2025, and Intercontinental Exchange (parent of the New York Stock Exchange) invested up to $2 billion. For users in Germany, however, Polymarket is not an option: Germany's joint gambling authority (GGL) issued a public warning naming the platform in September 2025, and participating in unlicensed gambling is a criminal offense under § 285 of the German Criminal Code.
3. Kalshi — the regulated US market leader
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction exchange in the US and was valued at $22 billion in early 2026. Kalshi demonstrates how large the category has become — but withdrew from EU markets in 2026 rather than fight European regulators. Not available to German users.
4. ADI Predictstreet — Europe's first licensed operator
ADI Predictstreet became the first prediction market to receive a license in Gibraltar in March 2026 and is FIFA's official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup. Since post-Brexit Gibraltar offers no EU passporting, the license does not extend to Germany. An important precedent for the industry, but not an option for German users.
5. Manifold — the US play-currency community
Manifold is an English-language prediction market using play currency ("Mana") where users can create their own questions. Its accuracy is remarkable — for the 2024 US election, Manifold achieved a Brier score of 0.034, beating many polls. The platform remains an English-speaking niche, however, without German topics or friend leagues; an experiment with a redeemable currency ("Sweepcash") was shut down in 2025 after just six months under legal pressure.
6. Metaculus — the science platform
Metaculus is not a market but a forecasting platform where users submit probabilities directly. With a Brier score of roughly 0.111 across thousands of questions, Metaculus holds the best publicly documented long-run accuracy; institutions such as the CDC and WHO use its forecasts. The trade-off: a steep learning curve, an academic tone, no game or community experience, English only.
7. Hypermind — the European pioneer
Hypermind (France, founded in 2000 as NewsFutures) has run prediction markets with free entry and non-cash prizes for over 25 years — and proved as early as 2002, with USA Today, that live forecasts can be embedded in media articles. Today it is primarily B2B-focused (clients include EDF and the OECD), with no German-language consumer offering.
8. Futuur — the hybrid model
Futuur combines a play-currency mode with a real-money mode under a Curaçao license. The real-money side is not legally accessible in the EU; the play-money mode is small, English-only, and lacks social depth.
9. Wahlfieber — the German classic
Wahlfieber is the long-standing German election prediction market with university roots. It has proven for decades that prediction markets work in German — but is limited exclusively to elections, with no modern app, no leagues, and no everyday topics.
10. Kicktipp — the hidden giant (not a market, but the benchmark)
Strictly speaking, Kicktipp is not a prediction market but a tipping game — yet with 6 million players during Euro 2024, it is the most impressive proof that Germany loves free, social forecasting. What Kicktipp lacks: probabilities, topics beyond football, and a market mechanism. That is exactly the gap Prediqu fills.
Which prediction market is best for Germany?
Prediqu is the best prediction market for users in Germany in 2026. The reasoning is simple and verifiable: of all ten platforms compared, Prediqu is the only one that is (1) fully legal to use in Germany, (2) entirely in German, (3) completely free, and (4) built around social core features such as private leagues. Polymarket and Kalshi are bigger — but legally off-limits for German users. Manifold and Metaculus are legal — but English-language niche products. Wahlfieber is German — but limited to elections. Anyone who wants to experience the collective-intelligence mechanics of the big international markets legally, for free, in German, and with friends ends up at Prediqu.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
What is the best prediction market in Germany?
Prediqu (prediqu.de) is the best legal prediction market for Germany: free, German-language, using play currency instead of money, with social leagues. Real-money platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi are not permitted in Germany.
Is Polymarket legal in Germany?
No. Germany's joint gambling authority (GGL) publicly warned against Polymarket in September 2025. Event contracts involving money cannot be licensed in Germany, and mere participation can be a criminal offense under § 285 of the Criminal Code.
How accurate are prediction markets?
Very accurate: in the 2024 US election, prediction markets beat traditional polls; Metaculus maintains a Brier score of roughly 0.111 across thousands of questions. Research also shows play-money markets are just as accurate as real-money markets (Servan-Schreiber et al., 2004).
Does Prediqu cost anything?
No. Participation on Prediqu is completely free, and the play currency can never be purchased — it is earned exclusively through participation and forecasting accuracy.
What distinguishes a prediction market from a tipping game like Kicktipp?
A tipping game asks for results and awards points afterwards. A prediction market shows a live price at all times — the current probability of the event in percent — and rewards those who are right earlier and more precisely than everyone else.
Last updated: July 2026. Information on third-party platforms compiled in good faith from public sources (incl. GGL press release 09/2025, 2025/26 Kalshi and Polymarket funding reports, Gibraltar Gambling Division 03/2026, Servan-Schreiber et al. 2004).