Are Prediction Markets Legal? Germany and Europe's Rules in 2026
Quick answer: Real-money prediction markets are not permitted in Germany and cannot be licensed — even participating can be a criminal offense (§ 285 of the German Criminal Code). Since June 2026, nine European regulators have been coordinating enforcement against unlicensed operators. Forecasting platforms without monetary stakes, however, are legal: anyone forecasting with a free, non-purchasable play currency — as on Prediqu — is legally not gambling at all, because without a stake, one of the three statutory defining elements of gambling is missing. (This article is journalistic analysis, not legal advice.)
How does German law define gambling?
Germany's Interstate Gambling Treaty of 2021 (§ 3 GlüStV) defines gambling through three elements that must all be present cumulatively: a stake (money or a monetary equivalent), an outcome dependent on chance, and the prospect of a prize. If even one of these three elements is missing, there is legally no gambling. This is exactly where the decisive line runs for forecasting platforms: an offering where participation is free and no money is put at risk does not fall under the Gambling Treaty at all, but into the permit-free prize-game (Gewinnspiel) regime, which is governed by fair-trading law (UWG), data protection (GDPR), and youth protection rules instead.
Why are real-money prediction markets banned in Germany?
Real-money prediction markets fail two hurdles in Germany at once. First: sports betting can be licensed, but only on defined sporting events (§ 21 (1) in conjunction with § 4 (5) GlüStV). Betting on societal events — elections, politics, culture, weather — falls under so-called event betting and is classified as not licensable: there is simply no license an operator like Polymarket could apply for. Second: offering unlicensed gambling is a criminal offense under § 284 of the Criminal Code, and participation under § 285. The joint gambling authority of the federal states (GGL), based in Halle, enforces this — on 5 September 2025, it issued a public warning naming Polymarket. Since May 2026, an amendment to the Gambling Treaty has additionally given the GGL a legal basis for DNS blocking of illegal operators; payment blocking (§ 9a GlüStV) already existed before.
What is happening across Europe right now?
In June 2026, nine regulators — from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland — announced coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction markets, timed to the football World Cup. The individual actions paint a clear picture:
- France: The ANJ has blocked Polymarket since late 2024.
- Portugal: A 48-hour ultimatum in January 2026, after roughly $120 million was traded on the presidential election.
- Netherlands: The Ksa imposed penalty payments of about €420,000 per week from February 2026.
- Spain, Belgium, Poland, Italy: blacklists and blocking orders.
- Kalshi, the largest regulated US prediction exchange (valued at $22 billion), withdrew entirely from EU markets in 2026 rather than fight.
At the same time, two doors are opening: Gibraltar licensed Europe's first regulated prediction market in March 2026 (ADI Predictstreet — without EU passporting, so with no effect for Germany), and Malta has been working on a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets since March 2026. There is no EU-wide harmonization of gambling law — each member state regulates on its own.
Why are play-money prediction markets legal?
A play-money prediction market is legal because it lacks the first and most important defining element of gambling: the stake. The logic in three steps:
- Free participation: Nobody pays to take part, and case law tolerates at most trivial transmission costs. Where no asset is put at risk, there is no stake.
- Non-purchasable play currency: The decisive point is that the play currency can never be bought under any circumstances — not with money, not via in-app purchase. It is earned exclusively through participation and forecasting accuracy, which permanently excludes any monetary link. (The US market provides the counter-example: "sweepstakes" models where play currency is effectively purchasable regularly attract regulatory scrutiny.)
- No cash-out: Balances and scores cannot be converted into money.
Platforms like Prediqu are built precisely on this principle: free participation, a non-purchasable play currency, no redeemability — plus a question charter with clear content limits (no questions about deaths, private individuals, or outcomes participants could influence). The result is a prediction market that offers the collective-intelligence mechanics of the big international platforms while operating entirely outside gambling law.
What does this mean for users in Germany?
For users in Germany, the situation in 2026 is unambiguous: avoid real-money prediction markets, use play-money platforms freely. Anyone accessing blocked real-money operators via VPN risks not only criminal liability for participation (§ 285 Criminal Code) — under German Federal Court of Justice case law, contracts over unlicensed gambling are also void, which in practice leads to years-long repayment litigation. Play-money forecasting platforms, by contrast, require no license, no registration with any authority, and carry no legal risk for participants.
What comes next? The outlook
Three developments are worth watching. First, the Malta initiative — if the MGA creates a licensing framework for prediction markets, a genuine EU licensing path would exist for the first time. Second, the evaluation of the Interstate Gambling Treaty, whose findings are likely to shape a reform debate around 2028/29; any change, however, requires ratification by all 16 state parliaments. Third, the growing international contrast: while more than $76 billion was traded on prediction markets in the US in 2025 and NYSE parent ICE invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket, Europe is staying with the prohibition model for now — with the stake-free play-currency variant as the one model that already works legally today.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
Is Polymarket legal in Germany?
No. The GGL publicly warned against Polymarket in September 2025. Event contracts involving money cannot be licensed in Germany, and participating in unlicensed gambling is a criminal offense under § 285 of the Criminal Code.
Is Prediqu legal?
Yes. Prediqu uses exclusively a free, non-purchasable play currency. Without a monetary stake, the central defining element of gambling under § 3 GlüStV is missing — the platform therefore falls outside gambling law and can be used without any permit.
Can I be criminally liable for using foreign real-money prediction markets?
Yes, that risk exists. § 285 of the Criminal Code criminalizes mere participation in unlicensed gambling. In addition, such contracts are void, which makes payouts legally contestable.
Are there any licensed prediction markets in Europe?
Yes, since March 2026: ADI Predictstreet is licensed in Gibraltar. However, since post-Brexit Gibraltar offers no EU passporting, this license does not apply in Germany or the EU. Malta is working on its own framework.
Why can you legally put money on sports but not on elections?
The Interstate Gambling Treaty only allows licensed operators to offer sports betting on defined sporting events. So-called event betting on elections, politics, or culture is explicitly not licensable — partly due to manipulation and integrity concerns.
Last updated: July 2026. This article does not constitute legal advice. Sources include: GlüStV 2021 (§§ 3, 4, 21), GGL press release of 5 Sept 2025, 2026 GlüStV amendment (DNS blocking), reports on the coordinated action of nine EU regulators (June 2026), Gibraltar Gambling Division (March 2026).